With all things considered, it was a good sports weekend. It kicked off with the Steelers pulling a win out of their behinds on Thursday Night Football against the Tennessee Titans. Saturday saw Manchester City thrash Bournemouth behind Jérémy Doku’s five goal involvements, Pitt contend with Florida State for almost three full quarters before their inevitable collapse, and the Penguins slotting ten past a horrendous San Jose Sharks team. Unfortunately, Sunday saw the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens all triumph, meaning that the Steelers gained no traction in the division race despite their TNF victory.
An incredulous statistic was discovered after the Steelers win on Thursday—despite winning 5 of their first 8 games, the black and yellow had been out-gained in yardage in every single game, including those against perceived poor offenses such as the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans. This factoid begs the question: how do the Steelers have FIVE WINS?
If we analyze the Steelers’ victories throughout the season, there are common themes: opportunistic defense (forcing turnovers, getting important third-down stops, drawing penalties), opponent incompetence (see my article on the Steelers-Ravens game about playing to win), and clutch offensive drives in the fourth quarter. For all of Kenny Pickett’s faults, he has performed well with the game on the line. For all of Kenny Pickett’s successes in the fourth quarter, he has underwhelmed overall. This entry will aim to assess Pickett’s first half of the 2023 NFL season in an unbiased manner.
The Good
Let us get the positives out of the way first. The Steelers are 5-3 and, at the time of writing, slotted into the 5th seed in the AFC playoff picture. The entire AFC North, in fact, would make the playoffs if they started now. Pittsburgh is 2-0 against the division with home wins against the Browns and Ravens (the latter of which still puzzles me, as Baltimore has stomped the Lions and Seahawks recently, both of whom were atop their respective divisions when the games began).
The most important metric for success—although it is not an accurate measure of quarterback performance and should not be used as such—is the win-loss record. Pickett is 5-3 this year. He has led three game-winning drives against the Ravens, Rams, and Titans. In his career, he is undefeated against-the-spread in primetime games (which, for the Steelers, is never a small sample size). He has cut down on the turnovers—only four interceptions and one fumble lost on the season. His touchdown percentage has increased from 1.8% to 2.6%, while his interception rate has decreased from 2.3% to 1.7%. If these statistics are extrapolated for an entire season, they are not small discrepancies. His yards per attempt and yards per game have both increased—albeit not by a lot—and his passer rating has increased by nearly five points.
All of this is to say that Kenny has done what is necessary to win games, although the defense deserves a lot of the credit for keeping these contests within striking distance.
The Bad
With all of the above being said, watching Pickett has been tough on the eyes. His completion percentage has actually decreased by 1.7% from last season. While completion percentage is not necessarily a comprehensive assessment of accuracy, watching enough Steelers games will tell you that Pickett is not the most accurate quarterback. He routinely misses throws that one would expect a QB drafted in the first round to make. For example, in the loss to the Jaguars, Pickett had a wide-open Diontae Johnson in the end zone. The throw was so poor that Johnson slipped and fell over.
That incident was not isolated. In the most recent game against the Titans, Pickett missed a wide-open Diontae on the left sideline. He short-armed multiple dump-offs and screens. He pump-faked for no reason, causing his throw to be delayed and missed a safety valve in the flat.
This is not to put the entirety of the blame on Pickett for the offense’s struggles and its failure to out-gain any of the 8 opponents so far. I have been ABUNDANTLY clear that I place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The offensive line has not done its job in taking the heat off Kenny—it is often said that the best way to avoid sacks is to have an effective running game. The run blocking has been dreadful. Najee Harris’s field vision has been more similar to Stevie Wonder than Barry Sanders. Pickett’s sack rate has increased by 0.4% from last season to now, a large change over the course of a season.
Not all sacks are the fault of the offensive line, though. There have been instances where Pickett simply holds onto the ball for too long, thus allowing pass rushers to get to him. He has not quite learned what the best quarterbacks in the league are adept at doing—knowing when a play is dead, cutting your losses, and throwing the ball away.
There also seems to be a fear of throwing the ball over the middle of the field. It seems as though every pass is thrown outside the numbers, which is not an effective way to move the ball. Throwing the ball to the sideline greatly inhibits the ability of the receivers to gain yards after the catch, something that is necessary to putting together long, successful drives. How much of this is on the play calling? Who can say. At some point, though, it is up to Pickett to change the plays if he sees a potential opening over the middle. It is his responsibility to take ownership of the offense and throw darts to in-breaking slot receivers and tight ends.
The Ugly
Pickett has already gotten injured twice this season: against the Texans, when an inexplicable Matt Canada play call on 4th and short—leaving his quarterback in the shotgun instead of getting under center and either sneaking the ball or handing it off—leading to a leg injury, and against the Jaguars, when he took a brutal shot to the ribs from a pass rusher.
These injuries were not Kenny’s fault, but were nonetheless painful to watch. The hit from the Jaguars’ pass rusher should have been penalized, as a Steelers’ defender was flagged for a less-aggressive hit on Trevor Lawrence earlier in the game. The injury against the Texans was born out of pure stupidity from Matt Canada, and could be foreseen as an inevitability in real-time.
Fundamentally, the offense is disjointed. It does not help that Diontae Johnson missed time with a hamstring injury and that tight end Pat Freiermuth is currently on injured reserve. George Pickens opening his trap and asking to be freed reflects poorly on himself, as well as the stability of the organization. There is a growing schism in Steeler Nation regarding who the starting running back should be—Jaylen Warren, a player with less tread on his tires and more burst, or Najee Harris, a first-round pick for whom the offense is incapable of calling plays suited to his strengths.
All of this is to say that, while being 5-3, this Steelers offense is disgusting and painful to watch.
Overall
In the end, the only thing that matters is your team’s record. While Pickett has struggled quite a bit, he has come through in the clutch multiple times this year, leading the Steelers to a 5-3 record at the midway point in the season and a spot in the playoffs, had they started today. The team is torture to watch play for sixty minutes every week, but somehow come out ahead more often than they fail, despite being out-gained in every game. The defense cannot receive enough credit for the job that they do in keeping the games within striking distance, but in the end, the offense has to score points. Quarters 1-3 Kenny Pickett is, frankly, horrendous, but fourth quarter Kenny Pickett is one of the most clutch, ballsiest players in the league.
Pickett grade: C+