Now that football season is officially over and the NFL draft is two months away, it is time to turn our attention to the NHL—at least until the MLB regular season starts up. While the latter is an annual traumatic experience for Pirates fans, the former has not been too much more successful this season. 

The Pens are in a very dangerous spot at the time of writing. They won their first game after the all-star break, a 3-0 win at home against a very good Winnipeg Jets team, in one of their better performances of the season. Kris Letang opened the scoring a bit over 7 minutes into the game with a ridiculous backhand goal that he put in the roof of the net, and the Penguins would score two goals on a major penalty by Brenden Dillon in the second period, the first of which was scored by Jeff Carter and the second by Bryan Rust. Yes, the much-maligned power play that I discussed two weeks ago actually did its job in making a team play for its player’s mistake. Through 3 games post-all-star break, the Penguins’ power play conversion rate has increased from 13.07% to 13.9%, which is a decent increase over such a short period of time. This game also saw Tristan Jarry record his league-leading 6th shutout, stopping all 23 shots that he faced . It was one of the more complete performances I had seen from Mike Sullivan’s team this season.

Unfortunately, the buoyant performance did not carry over onto the team’s two game road-trip, which saw them stop in Saint Paul, Minnesota before heading to Manitoba for a rematch against the Jets.

The game against the Wild was very odd and disjointed. The first period saw each team be awarded a 4-minute power play as a result of different high-sticking infractions. Of course, the Penguins did not convert on their double-minor against what was the 30th ranked penalty kill in the NHL at the time, while the Wild scored on theirs through rookie sensation Matt Boldy. Another oddity in this game was that, when the Penguins were awarded a power play at the 15:55 mark of the first period, the horn inside the stadium went off numerous times as they got set up in the attacking zone, halting any semblance of momentum that the anemic power play could amass. 

The Penguins tied the game up 2:54 into the second period through Reilly Smith, only to give it right back 3 minutes and 18 seconds later. Entering the third period trailing 2-1 but on a power play, Sidney Crosby tied the game on the man-advantage, marking the only conversion on six power plays the Pens had. Naturally, the Penguins conceded 8.5 minutes after their equalizer, a game-winning goal by Kirill Kaprizov. 

The statistics for the Wild game are misleading. Despite the Penguins having six more shots than Minnesota, they were outplayed for the majority of the game. When they did have chances, former Penguin Marc-André Fleury showed why he is the second-winningest goalie of all-time, making 34 saves on 36 shots in a remarkable performance.

I must confess that I did not watch the Jets rematch the following night, as I attended a fantastic concert instead. However, in listening to the first period on the radio, it did not appear as though the Penguins played any better than they did the previous game. They dug themselves a two-goal deficit in the first period and could only cut the lead in half, with the final score being 2-1 in favor of Winnipeg. It was, by all accounts, a miserable road-trip, garnering zero points and positioning the team seven points behind the Detroit Red Wings in the second wild-card spot.

There is the old adage: “one step forward, two steps back”. This adequately describes the Penguins so far. For all the games where they play well and you hope that the result becomes a catalyst for better performances, the team almost inevitably regresses. If you were to ask me whether the Penguins will end up making the playoffs this year, I would have to say no. They have not shown any sign of consistency to suggest that they can go on a tear, which will be necessary considering how far back they are in the playoff hunt.

So, what do you do if you are the Penguins? Perennial 20+ goal scorer Jake Guentzel, who already has 22 goals and 51 points in only 49 games this season, will be an unrestricted free agent at year’s end. He will likely command a long-term deal at upwards of $9 million per season, a fee that the Penguins are not in a position to pay. Would it make sense to trade him at the deadline so that he does not walk for nothing? If the team does not go on a massive run leading up to the deadline, I would certainly consider it. There is no point in keeping him and losing him for free if they are not poised to even make the playoffs, let alone make a run at a sixth Stanley Cup.

The organization is in a difficult spot. They have the oldest team in the league and very little cap relief. Both of these issues make a rebuild difficult-to-impossible. Furthermore, is it even worthwhile to rebuild when all of your best players are older? Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, and others are all over 30 years old (with some closer to 40 than 30). Kyle Dumas will have a dilemma on his hands when the trade deadline approaches. Will he rebuild? Will he retool? Will he stand pat? No one knows, yet. I do hope that he is prepared for the storm of mediocrity that will approach if he does nothing, although I am not sure going all in with a team this inconsistent is a more viable solution.

Have a good week.