I would first like to apologize for an error in last week’s entry. I forgot to include the scenario in which the Steelers won, and the Jaguars lost as a possibility for making the playoffs. Indeed, that is what happened this past weekend. The Steelers—in a deluge of rain—narrowly escaped Baltimore with a win against the Ravens’ understudies, including quarterback Tyler Huntley, who played an objectively miserable game.
The Steelers did not exactly set the world on fire, either. Mason Rudolph completed 90% of his passes, but only amassed 152 yards and 1 touchdown, the latter of which accounted for 71 of Rudolph’s yards. Najee Harris continued his resurgent form, toting the ball 26 times for 112 yards and finding the end zone and catching all five of his targets for 21 additional yards. Oddly enough, George Pickens—Rudolph’s favorite target against both Cincinnati and Seattle—was not targeted once. His only touch came on a very ugly jet sweep during which he ran for 3 yards and picked up a first down. The defense played well, albeit against backups. Huntley was sacked 4 times and the Ravens fumbled the ball twice.
Backups or otherwise, the Steelers held up their end of the bargain (despite losing defensive player of the year candidate and sack leader T.J. Watt to an MCL sprain). The “easy” part was completed. Now, it was time to root for a tie in the Colts-Texans game (highly unlikely), a Jaguars loss to a Titans team who entered the ultimate week of the regular season with only 5 wins, and/or a Dolphins win against the Bills in the last game of the season. Of the three scenarios, the Dolphins beating the Bills seemed to be the most possible occurrence, despite them missing starting running back (and touchdown leader) Raheem Mostert and their second-best wide receiver in Jaylen Waddle, in addition to a litany of defensive injuries. Needless to say, I was not expecting anything positive to happen for the Steelers until Sunday Night Football.
Flash back to the Jaguars’ win over the Steelers in week 8, a game in which Jacksonville won by 10 and Kenny Pickett got injured. Jaguars’ safety Andrew Wingard intercepted Mitch Trubisky with 9:26 left in the game and the Jags holding onto a 17-10 lead. Wingard picked up a Terrible Towel from a Steelers’ fan and threw it onto the ground, seemingly unaware of the curse of the Terrible Towel (if you do not believe me, ask LenDale White). Jacksonville was 6-2 following that win. They proceeded to lose 5 of their next 8 games, setting up a scenario in which they needed to win in Week 18 to make the playoffs.
They did not. Tennessee raced out to a 28-13 lead early in the 3rd quarter and managed to hold on for a 28-20 victory, largely driven by Trevor Lawrence’s failure to convert a 4th and goal quarterback sneak from the 1-yard line with 7:14 left in their season. I want to give a special shout-out to the Titans’ running back duo of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears, who combined for 22 carries for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, while Spears added 3 catches for 41 yards and another touchdown through the air.
Before the Steelers beat the Bengals in week 16, they had a 7% chance of making the playoffs, per NBC. The Titans beating Jacksonville allowed the black-and-gold to complete their journey from dead in the water to the 7th seed in the playoffs, a team tasked with traveling to Orchard Park, New York Sunday afternoon to take on the red-hot Buffalo Bills, another team that seemed to be dead and buried before rattling off five consecutive wins to end the season and snatch the AFC East crown from the gaping maw of the Miami Dolphins.
I have no expectations that the Steelers will beat (or even be competitive against) the Bills Sunday—they have opened as 10-point underdogs, the largest spread of any of the six wild-card games. I do not know if the Steelers can cover that spread, but I do know that this is the third consecutive year in which the Steelers had to rely on an inferior team upsetting a team in a win-and-in scenario to make the playoffs. In 2021, a horrendous Jaguars team beat Carson Wentz’s Colts, allowing the Steelers to sneak into the playoffs before getting trounced by Kansas City. In 2022, we required a Jets team with a backup quarterback to triumph over the Dolphins to get in, which did not occur. This year, it was Ryan Tannehill and the now-6 and 11 Titans beating a now-9 and 8 Jaguars team to get the Steelers into the wild-card round.
How has it become the norm that the Steelers must rely on outside help to get to the postseason? How is it that we have received immense help from terrible football teams two out of the last three years to make this possible? The latter is a decidedly easier question to answer. All Week 18 games are between division opponents, and there is nothing more satisfying for a team than knocking a rival of theirs out of playoff contention. Additionally, in the case of rebuilding teams like the 2023 Titans and 2021 Jaguars, many players are competing in their last game for the club and want to go out on a high note. That was demonstrated by Derrick Henry taking yesterday’s contest into his own hands, bulldozing every Jaguar in sight en route to a huge day.
The former question is where it gets frustrating. The Steelers have shown a remarkable tendency in years past to play down to the level of their opposition. Losing back-to-back games against 2-win teams in the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots was far-and-away the nadir of the 2023-24 season. At 7-4, the team looked primed for a run at the division crown. Instead, they sputtered, losing three straight before rebounding with three consecutive victories to end the season.
In what was an absolute rollercoaster of a regular season, one has to ask where the Steelers have garnered such good fortune from other teams? There is the old adage, “lucky is the result of good”. However, have the Steelers been good? That seems an odd question to ask of a 10-7 team but watching them play for 17 games would tell you that the record is flattering. So, no—the Steelers’ luck is not the result of being good. Whatever the reason for the football gods to look favorably down upon us, I am not complaining. At some point, though, the Steelers need to take their destiny into their own hands.