One of the most quotable lines from Seinfeld occurs in season 7, when the newly-engaged George Costanza and Susan Ross have their respective families meet for the first time over dinner. George’s father, Frank, inquires about the nature of bird relationships, “Let me understand. You got the hen, the chicken, and the rooster. The rooster goes with the chicken. So, who’s having sex with the hen?…You only hear of a hen, a rooster, and a chicken. Something’s missing!” Susan Ross’s mother replies, “Something’s missing, all right,” under her breath, in reference to the clear absurdity of Frank’s question and a more generalized observation of his behavior. Today, we will try to answer the question as to what is missing, but not from Frank’s question. In fact, we will be discussing an entirely different species of bird: the Pittsburgh Penguin.

By all accounts, the Penguins have been quite pedestrian this year. They have amassed 51 points through 46 games, acquiring 55.4% of all possible points at this juncture in the season. The league average for points percentage is 55.4%, suggesting that the Pens are exactly average. Their power play, something upon which the franchise used to pride itself, is atrocious, with the team converting on 13.07% of their man-advantages. This mark is second-worst in the league, only to be outdone by the 12.42% conversion rate of the Chicago Blackhawks, who have the tied-lowest point total of any team in the NHL. For reference, the league average on the power play is scoring at a 20.57% clip.

A 7.5% difference between the league average and the Penguins’ performance is absolutely dismal. Todd Reirden, the assistant coach who is also in charge of the power play, should have been fired much earlier in the season, when the team was mired in a historically-long power play slump. Alas, he is still standing behind the bench with Mike Sullivan and crew.

The penalty kill has been slightly above average (81.16 kill rate versus 79.43% league average), but has cooled down in recent weeks. In the last 30 days (13 games), the Pens are only killing off three out of every four penalties that they take. In this same period of time, the power play has also been worse, hitting at only 12.5% (one out of every eight).

It is not as though the Penguins do not have the talent to have an effective power play (or an effective penalty kill, for that matter). The roster includes first-ballot hall of famers in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, a perennial 20-goal scorer in Jake Guentzel, the reigning Norris Trophy winner in Erik Karlsson, a likely hall of famer in Kris Letang, and other impact guys including an amazing two-way forward in Bryan Rust.

So what is the problem, you may ask. There obviously is one, as the incompetence of the team is not proportional to the talent with which the coaching staff can work. The Penguins are 5 points out of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, albeit with three games in hand on the Red Wings, who currently hold the 8th seed. They have 11 points in their last 10 games, a 55% point share that, as mentioned before, is average. They have had multiple games during which a last-gasp equalizer with the goalie pulled was required to push the game to overtime, where a loss was inevitable. The Penguins have lost 7 of their 11 games this season that have gone to the extra frame—that means that they have missed out on 7 points that they could have earned had they been somewhat productive after 60 minutes. 

The problem, in my estimation, is a lack of confidence in the offensive zone. This is the first season in recent memory where the goalies have performed above average, amassing a cumulative .911 save percentage and 7 shut-outs. However, the offensive production has thus far failed to bear fruit for these performances in the blue paint. At 5-on-5, the Penguins are converting what are called “high-danger scoring chances” at only an 8.5% clip, almost a full percentage lower than that of the league average, while conceding high-danger scoring chances at a rate of 9.5%, which is equal to league average. This is to say that the Penguins are not making the most of their grade-A chances.

The key to gaining confidence in the offensive zone is finding a rhythm, and the beginning of that is the power play. As long as the latter continues to be inept, the former will cease to exist. There need to be changes made, starting from the top. Reirden, at a minimum, needs to be fired. I am not sure Sullivan is far behind, but the power play cannot continue to function at such a low rate. Something is certainly missing, and the remedy is not to keep doing the same thing with the same personnel. It is “perverse”, in the words of Frank Costanza, to have this much talent yet be so pathetic.

Have a good week.