If you recall back to last summer, when the Penguins fired then-general manager Ron Hextall and replaced him with Kyle Dubas of the Toronto Maple Leafs, there was a sense of optimism within the Pittsburgh hockey community. A bright, young mind that might actually make productive moves, to perhaps do the improbable by simultaneously attempting one last run with Sid, Geno, and Tanger while re-building around the aging core.

Initially, it looked like Dubas was in win-now mode. Acquisitions of the reigning Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson and a recently-crowned Stanley Cup champion in Reilly Smith (about whom I will actually speak shortly, as there is some relevant news regarding his status as a Pittsburgh Penguin) via trade, along with signing notable free agent defenseman Ryan Graves (6 years, $4.5 million average annual value) and some depth pieces, including Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto, gave Penguins’ fans some hope that missing the playoffs in the 2022-23 season was but an aberration.

Alas, it was not. The Penguins were sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in recent memory, parting ways with fan favorite Jake Guentzel (who will sign a 7 year, $63 million deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning) in exchange for prospects and draft picks, as well as established winger Michael Bunting. The Pens still found themselves in contention for a playoff spot until almost the final day of the regular season, before ultimately being nudged out by the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders.

Now, the team is aging. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. They traded away one of their better players to get younger. Surely, the plan is to continue to bring in younger pieces to facilitate a rebuild, perhaps shed some salary, and possibly target some inexperienced players with untapped potential in free agency…right?

WRONG!

Of course, the Penguins were without a first-round pick on Friday night as a result of the Erik Karlsson trade from the previous offseason. They did make a notable move on day 2 of the draft, though, acquiring 32 year-old center Kevin Hayes from the St. Louis Blues, along with a 2025 2nd-round pick for “future considerations”. This is what they call a “salary dump” on St. Louis’s part, packaging a draft pick with a bloated contract to get a team to take it. Hayes’s cap hit for next season is a bit over $3.5 million, which I would argue is a bit steep for a player who only amassed 29 points in 79 games last season. I will take the 2025 draft pick, though, as it offers a bit of hope as far as building for the future is concerned.

NHL free agency opened today, and it was a wild scene. Names like Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, Chandler Stephenson, Teuvo Teravainen, and Jake DeBrusk all found new homes at eye-popping numbers, as far as NHL salaries go. Now, you might ask, what have the Penguins done so far? They traded Reilly Smith to the rival New York Rangers for a couple of draft picks while retaining 25% of his salary. They signed former Bruins defenseman Matt Grzelcyk (Grizz-LICK) to a 1 year, $2.75 million deal–he is 30 years old, by the way…not exactly part of any “youth movement”. They signed Blake Lizotte to a two-year, $3.8 million deal to be a bottom-six center–only 26 years old! They signed Anthony Beauvillier (pronounced as French as humanly possible) to a 1 year, $1.25 million deal to provide depth on the wing–only 27!

There is an analytics account I follow on Twitter (@JFreshHockey) that details different components of players’ games–what they do well, what they can work on, what their expected percentage of wins above replacement will be [the higher, the better], etc. (he is also a Penguins’ fan). Here are his analyses of the Penguins’ signings:

• Blake Lizotte: projected WAR% of 46%; time on ice projects as a 4th-line center, bottom-six defensive forechecker, penalty killer, some passing ability
• Anthony Beauvillier: projected WAR% of 5%; time on ice projects as a 4th-line winger, value comes from creating scoring chances for himself, the main issue is that he has problems putting them in the net
• Matt Grzelcyk: projected WAR% of 10%; time on ice projects as a third-pair defenseman, very active in transition, has a 65% goal share at 5-on-5 in the last 3 seasons, but ice time is down and is a frequent scratch in the post-season, has some tools but is a reclamation project

Ladies and gentlemen, we have found the false bottom at the bottom of the free agency barrel! For comparison, Danton Heinen–a former Penguin who just inked a 2 year, $4.5 million deal with Vancouver–has a 67% projected WAR%, which is higher than Lizotte, Beauvillier, and Grzelcyk combined.

I do not pretend to understand every analytical detail about these values, but I do know that these signings are very Pirates-esque. I have seen enough reclamation projects signed in the waning days of the winter and spring to know one when it flashes across the ticker on ESPN. As much as Kyle Dubas went all-out to contend last off-season, he appears to be doing the exact opposite so far. The off-season is still young, but most of the big names are off the board. He needs to make a decision very soon as to whether he wants to make a run at the Cup or shut down and re-tool.